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Other predictive microbiology application software

Development of models to predict growth, survival or inactivation of microorganisms in foods has been a most active area within food microbiology during the last 25 years and a considerable number of predictive models and allication software are available. Description of the types of models developed and a summary of models available in 2003 in the public domain was presented by Ross and Dalgaard (2004). An overview of 16 software tools presented during the 8th International Conference on Predictive Modelling in Food was recently published (Tenenhaus-Aziza and Ellouze, 2014). Brief descriptions and links to various available predictive micrrobiology application software is given below:   


Pathogen Modeling Program (PMP)

PMP is available free of charge (http://www.ars.usda.gov/Services/docs.htm?docid=6796) and, with more than 5000 downloads per year, it is probably the most widely used predictive microbiology application software. PMP has been available for close to 25 years and it is regularly being updated and expanded. The present version includes more than 40 models for different bacterial pathogens The software allows growth or inactivation of pathogens to be predicted for different combinations of constant temperature, pH, NaCl/aw and, in some cases, other conditions such as organic acid type and concentration, atmosphere, or nitrate. In addition, PMP includes models that predict the effect of cooling temperature profiles on growth of Clostridium botulinum and Cl. perfringens after cooking. Predictions can be exported and the software contains references to studies from which the models were developed. In 2007 PMP was integrated with the Predictive Microbiology Information Portal (PMIP; http://portal.errc.ars.usda.gov/).


ComBase (Combined database on predictive microbiology information) 

This database has been available since June 2003 (www.combase.cc). ComBase includes more than 50.000 curves/data on growth, survival or inactivation of microorganism in foods. Data has been obtained form the litterature or provided by supporting institutions. The Predicttive models toolbox within ComBase includes an application software with models for growth or inactivation of 18 foodborne pathogens and two spoilage bacteria (Brochothrix thermosphacta and Pseusomonas spp.) See Baranyi and Tamplin (2004); McMeekin et al. (2006) and Tamplin et al. (2004) for comments and explanations about ComBase.



Sym’previus (www.symprevius.org) is an extensive French decision support system that includes (i) a database with growth and inactivation responses of microorganisms in foods and (ii) predictive models for growth and inactivation of pathogenic bacteria and some spoilage microorganisms . Information from Sym’previus is available on a commercial basis through contact centres as indicated on the homepage cited above.



The site provides various types of information related to risk analysis including data, tutorials, tools, and links. Some information on predictve microbiology application software is also provided (See www.foodrisk.org).


Refrigeration index calculator

The Refrigeration index calculator version 2 from 2005 includes a predictive model for the effect of temperature on growth of E. coli in different types of meats during cooling of these products (Ross et al. 2003). The Refrigeration index calculator was developed by Meat & Livestock Australia Limited (http://www.foodsafetycentre.com.au/refrigerationindex.php).Recently, McMeekin et al. (2008) described the value of the this predictive microbiology tool to the raw meat sector in Australia.


Risk Ranger

The Risk Ranger is a simple food safety risk ranking decision aid in spreadsheet format (Ross and Sumner, 2002). The tool is available free of charge from the Australia's food safety information portal (http://www.foodsafetycentre.com.au/riskranger.php).


PURAC Listeria control model 2012

This software predicts the effect of organic acids, temperature, pH and moisture on growth of Listeria monocytogenes in meat products. See http://www.purac.com/EN/Food/Calculators/Listeria-Control-Model.aspx


Fish Shelf Life Prediction Program (FSLP)

FSLP has been developed to predict the effect of storage temperatures on microbial spoilage and shelf-life of farmed fresh turbut (Nuin et al., 2008). The software was described by Alfaro et al. (2008) see also



Process Lethality Determination spreadsheet (AMI Foundation, USA)

To calculate heat inactivation for time-temperature profiles this freeware can be helpful (http://www.amif.org/process-lethality/)


Shelf Stability Predictor

Developed by the Center for Meat Process Validation at the University of Wisconsin - Madison to predict the growth of Listeria monocytogenes and Staphylococcus aureus on Ready-To-Eat meat products as a function of pH and water activity (http://meathaccp.wisc.edu/ST_calc.html)


THERM (Temperature History Evaulation for Raw Meat)

Developed by the Center for Meat Process Validation at the University of Wisconsin - Madison to evaluate process deviations for raw meat or poultry at temperatures between 10°C and 46°C. See S.C. Ingham, et al. 2007. Predicting Pathogen Growth during Short-Term Temperature Abuse of Raw Pork, Beef, and Poultry Products: Use of an Isothermal-Based Predictive Tool. J. Food Protection 70:1445-1456 and http://meathaccp.wisc.edu/